 As India's most restive region stares down the abyss of what a commentator calls another "hot summer of violence", the doom-laden headline has returned with a vengeance: Is India losing Kashmir?
Last summer was one of the bloodiest in the Muslim-dominated valley in recent years. Following the killing of influential militant Burhan Wani by Indian forces last July, more than 100 civilians lost their lives in clashes during a four-month-long security lockdown in the valley. It's not looking very promising this summer. This month's parliamentary election in Srinagar was scarred by violence and a record-low turnout of voters. To add fuel to the fire, graphic social videos surfaced claiming to show abuses by security forces and young people who oppose Indian rule. A full-blown protest by students has now erupted on the streets; and, in a rare sight, even schoolgirls are pelting stones and hitting police vehicles. Reports say Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh told her that they could not "offer a dialogue with separatists and other restive groups in the valley" while fierce violence and militant attacks continued. Former chief minister and leader of the regional National Conference party Farooq Abdullah warned that India that it was "losing Kashmir". What Mr Abdullah suggested was unexceptionable: the government should begin talking with the stakeholders - Pakistan, the separatists, mainstream parties, the minority Kashmiri Hindus - and start "thinking of not a military solution, but a political way". With more than 500,000 security forces in the region, India is unlikely to lose territory in Kashmir. But Shekhar Gupta, a leading columnist, says that while Kashmir is "territorially secure, we are fast losing it emotionally and psychologically". The abysmal 7% turnout in the Srinagar poll proved that "while your grip on the land is firm, you are losing its people". So what is new about Kashmir that is worrying India and even provoking senior army officials to admit that the situation is fragile? For one, a more reckless and alienated younger generation of local youth is now leading the anti-India protests. More than 60% of the men in the valley are under 30. Many of them are angry and confused. |